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David Kern, Chief Economist, British Chambers of Commerce

David is founder of Kern Consulting and chief economist for the British Chambers of Commerce, responsible for preparing its quarterly economic forecast.

David writes Financial Director’s The Macro View pages, bringing his view on the direction of global macroeconomics and his own predictions on key indicators.

David was previously group chief economist at NatWest and today is a sought-after commentator on a range of economic and policy issues.

Articles by David Kern

cashinjection

Markets are too addicted to repeated doses of cheap cash

Large injections of liquidity by the major central banks have played a key role in underpinning recent bouts of optimism, but danger is still lurking in the shadows | 26 Apr 2012

A stock exchange screen

Financial markets complacent as global threats escalate

Even if fiscal discipline improves, periphery economies such as Greece and Spain will continue suffering from a huge competitive gap | 06 Jan 2012

Concept image of Greek sharks circling sinking euro

Eurozone on the brink as Italy and Greece stability in doubt

The Greek crisis is far from resolved and threats to the eurozone have become more imminent in the wake of political and economic problems engulfing Italy | 15 Nov 2011

Dexia’s midnight bailout adds to fears over banking stability

The problems facing the eurozone are now posing major risks to the global economy and to the UK, but fears of US recession are exaggerated, writes David Kern | 13 Oct 2011

Wounded stock markets adjust to worsening growth prospects

Hopes of a rapid return to normal growth after the financial crisis were always unjustified, but some recent figures look worse than expected | 27 Sep 2011

The US downgrade: historical watershed or non-event?

S&P’s farcical handling of the US demotion has reignited perceptions that the credit agencies are incompetent and their views are given too much importance | 01 Sep 2011

A fear of the Greeks unsettles global markets

The risk of a Greek debt default raises spectre of a new financial crisis | 04 Jul 2011

Market confidence proves temporary amid anxiety attacks

Standard & Poor’s US rating cut highlights anxiety gripping global markets | 20 May 2011

Buoyant markets betray real threat of second downturn

US jobs and Japanese fiscal strength should not occlude the risk of more shocks | 15 Apr 2011

Global stagflation on the cards amid oil crisis threat

Risk of a global oil shock delivers much-needed dose of scepticism | 24 Mar 2011

Inflation and geopolitical instability unsettle growth optimism

The eruption of anti-government demonstrations throughout the Middle East has reinforced concerns over global recovery | 07 Feb 2011

New year optimism masks resilient economic dangers

The absence of a realistic deficit plan threatens the US triple-A credit rating | 24 Jan 2011

Bank balance sheets risk more eurozone bailouts

Banks holding on to overvalued mortgages may unleash more pain | 20 Dec 2010

Second US monetary injection raises inflation-deflation fears

Republican success in US midterms sees the launch of QE2 despite efficacy concerns | 22 Nov 2010

Plunging dollar sparks fears of brewing currency war

The manipulation of currency movements risks triggering international tensions | 25 Oct 2010

US figures trigger fears of a bond market bubble

US economic growth is slowing again. The consequences could be global | 27 Sep 2010

Slowing growth raises double-dip recession fears

Growth prospects have worsened. Can a second downturn be averted? | 24 Aug 2010

The Macro View: Sovereign debt threatens worsening banking crisis

Optimism is brief, market rallies are short-lived. Is the eurozone doomed? | 05 Jul 2010

The Macro View: Cost of euro currency stability – an eyewatering €750bn?

A deal between eurozone finance ministers to insure against attacks on the currency may not be enough | 24 May 2010

The Macro View: Growth may prove fleeting

Global share prices are at an 18-month high and optimism is again on the rise in the markets. But the surge is largely due to temporary short-term factors | 26 Apr 2010

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