And they're off: The career trajectories of FDs

“Give a date, give a rate, but never both.” Well worn and rather sage, this favourite economists' maxim, about predicting both the exchange rate and when that rate will hit, hints at the occupational hazard contained in daring to forecast which way markets or assets are going to move at any given time. It's something that we've all had a refresher on in the past couple of years. But we can't blame the bookies (or the economists) for carrying on regardless, it being their job to soothsay.

Three punts in particular, however, caught Financial Director's eye at the turn of the new year: Paddy Power's bets on who might be British Airways's next chief executive if Willie Walsh was to go in 2010, who might replace Morrisons CEO Marc Bolland when he makes his previously announced leap to Marks & Spencer, and who will be ITV's next CEO. We're interested because it looks likely that a handful of FDs may be in the running for three of British businesses' most challenging jobs. In all three cases, the incumbent FDs are the current favourites with Paddy Power's clientele.

It is worth noting that the future movements of all three are uncertain anyway at the moment. BA's Keith Williams has already been designated CEO of BA's operating business when it merges with Iberia (as the plan is to continue operating as two separate entities, owned by one holding company) but it remains to be seen whether this will be a permanent arrangement, or one that sees through the transition.

Morrisons' FD Richard Pennycook has kept away from the limelight as speculation over his next move rolls on, but the breadth of his experience means that if he doesn't become CEO at the supermarket giant he will surely have to move onwards and upwards.

Meanwhile, ITV's former FD and chief operating officer, John Cresswell, is on his second stint as the broadcasting company's interim CEO following Michael Grade's departure last October and Paddy Power gives him odds of 4/1 to make that permanent, despite him having already said that he intends to leave ITV when a new CEO is found.

Not only those FDs’ names in the odds could be up for promotion. In the case of ITV, we've identified three more finance heads that could be moving on up if any of their respective CEOs who are in the bets take the job. There seems to be a rich mine of experienced, well-regarded FDs behind these CEOs and we would expect them to be considering their next move if their chief executives are.

We think the career trajectories of the FDs in the running for elevation – either explicitly through Paddy Power's odds, or because they're in the frame by way of their current position making it a logical consideration – are worth examination for tips all FDs looking to build on their own positions in 2010 can use.

WHO WILL BE MORRISON's NEXT CEO?
Richard Pennycook, FD, Morrisons
Turnaround guy par excellence, Pennycook delivered the impossible by restoring the City's faith in the Yorkshire grocer after its botched Safeway acquisition. Proof that he can more than handle the numbers is in abundance, but he is an unknown quantity in terms of management style and charisma. Some misread his unflappability as boringness – potentially a PR stumbling block. Paddy Power places him as the favourite at 11/8 to become Morrison's next CEO. But he may find the siren call of all those stricken businesses out there needing a steady hand too tempting.

Tom Athron, FD, Waitrose
Waitrose managing director Mark Price has odds of 9/4 to defect to Morrisons – but the story for Financial Director is that this could create an opening at the upmarket grocer for its current FD, Tom Athron, who was John Lewis Partnership's buying director before becoming FD at Waitrose last summer. Stacked against him is the fact that he's barely settled into the top finance role, but in his f avour is his experience at Partnership level, and outside of finance too.

Brian Mullens, FD, McDonald's UK
Fifteen years in the burger giant's operations across finance, McDonald’s CEO Steve Easterbrook is on odds of 10/1 and could certainly import some interesting insights into how a fast-moving, truly international business with enormous economies of scale makes money – if he doesn't mind relocating from London to Bradford. His FD, Brian Mullens, is also a master in the art of squeezing supply chains and the vagaries of financing a huge consumer-facing outfit. We think if Easterbrook goes, Mullens may well push to succeed him.