THE likelihood of the UK falling into recession before the end of the year is “significantly elevated” in light of new data showing the UK economy is in slowdown, the latest economic data showed.
The UK economy is in this midst of an economic slowdown, according to economic data from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. It is the strongest evidence yet that Britain’s decision to leave the European Union is having an economic impact.
“The probability of a technical recession before the end of 2017 remains significantly elevated,” the NIESR said in its monthly GDP estimate.
Output grew by 0.3 percent in the three months to the end of August following growth of 0.4 percent in the three months ending in July, the NIESR said.
For the year to date, economic growth in the UK has been subdued compared to recent history, and the economy has been flat since April, the economic think tank said.
Rebecca Piggott, Research Fellow at NIESR, said “The evidence on the current state of the economy post-referendum is limited, but on balance these data suggest that the UK economy is in the midst of a slowdown. We estimate that in the three months to August the UK economy grew by 0.3 per cent.”
The NIESR is Britain’s longest established independent research institute founded in 1938.